Understanding the Coronavirus Crisis: Key Fiscal and Economic Indicators | Peter G. Peterson Foundation
Understanding the Coronavirus Crisis
Key Fiscal and Economic Indicators as the Nation Responds and Recovers
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented national emergency requiring a significant federal response. This page provides resources and analysis, tracking the actions our leaders are taking to respond, and providing insights on the state of America’s fiscal and economic outlook during the recovery.
The decrease in real GDP was the worst quarterly contraction since the government started publishing such data over 70 years ago.
Cumulative Budget Deficit
$3.1 TrillionCumulative Deficit for Fiscal Year 2020.
The federal deficit is more than triple the shortfall recorded last fiscal year.
The unemployment rate has improved from its peak of 14.7 percent in April of this year, which was the highest of any month since January 1948 — when data were first collected.
Cost of Coronavirus Legislation
$2.6 TrillionTotal Cost of Enacted Legislation to Date
Lawmakers have passed legislation funding a range of new and existing programs aimed at providing economic relief.
0.625%Interest Rate on 10-Year Treasury Notes, as of October 7, 2020
The Treasury has been able to borrow cheaply because the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Gross Federal Debt
$27.1 TrillionAs of October 20, 2020
The amount of federal debt held by the public is anticipated to exceed the size of the economy by next fiscal year.
Real GDP Growth
Indicator Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, September 2020.
Note: That number reflects the percent change in real GDP from the preceding quarter. It is reported at an annualized rate.
Cumulative Budget Deficits
Indicator Source: Department of the Treasury, Monthly Treasury Statement, Issue for September 2020.
Note: The federal fiscal year begins on October 1 and ends on September 30.
Indicator Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Employment Situation — September 2020, October 2020.
Total Cost of Coronavirus Legislation Enacted
Indicator Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output. September 2020
Note: The indicator reflects the sum of the estimated deficit costs of the legislation over the 2020–2030 period.
Indicator Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Today's Auction Results, October, 2020.
Indicator Source: Peter G. Peterson Foundation, What Is the National Debt Today?, October 2020.
Note: Each business day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury reports the amount of debt outstanding at the end of the previous business day. Our formula uses that number, as well as debt projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), to estimate the rate at which the debt is currently growing. Our estimates reflect the latest information from Treasury and CBO projections that are updated 2–3 times per year.
Gross federal debt equals debt held by the public plus debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself.
Projection Source: Congressional Budget Office, CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021, April 2020.
The Latest and Trending
Latest insights from the Peterson Foundation on the fiscal and economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.