A set of new budget estimates from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) reveals that even if the President’s budget were implemented in full, debt would still exceed its all-time high by the end of the decade and the deficit at that point would reach $2 trillion. The updated estimates in the Mid-Session Review also assume steady economic growth and no major unforeseen events, such as the 2008 recession or the COVID-19 pandemic. While the $3.3 trillion in deficit reduction proposed in the President’s budget is a step in the right direction, the numbers make clear that it is not enough, as deficits would remain well above levels typically seen during stable economic times. The report serves as a reminder that the country is on an unsustainable fiscal path; however, the good news is that many solutions are available to chart a sustainable fiscal path forward.
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Further Reading
How Does Labor Supply Impact the Fiscal Outlook?
Labor supply plays a central role in the United States’ fiscal outlook and currently stands at a turning point.
The Fed Held Its Target Range For the Fifth Meeting in a Row but Interest Costs Remain High
High interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities increase the federal government’s borrowing costs.
Quarterly Treasury Refunding Statement: Higher Borrowing Compared to Last Year
The United States is expected to borrow less over the next six months than it did over the same period last year — but there are signals that borrowing may increase in the months ahead.