The Scorekeepers Agree: Budget Bill will Increase U.S. Debt by Trillions
Last Updated June 6, 2025
The House recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and fiscal scorekeepers are unanimous in their assessment that it would increase federal debt by trillions of dollars within 10 years. In fact, four independent policy organizations — the Budget Lab at Yale, the Congressional Budget Office, the Tax Foundation, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model — estimate that the bill would send the national debt soaring to more than $50 trillion.
The groups find that by 2034 the debt would reach:
· $52.3 trillion according to the Budget Lab at Yale
· $52.4 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office
· $52.8 trillion according to the Tax Foundation
· $56.3 trillion according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model
Rising debt not only worsens the federal government’s fiscal situation but also has real impacts on all Americans. A larger national debt will reduce the size of the U.S. economy, reduce the number of U.S. jobs, and decrease the wages of working Americans.
The expert consensus is clear that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add trillions to America’s debt, making our already unsustainable outlook even worse. As the legislation is considered in the Senate, lawmakers still have the opportunity to consider fiscally responsible tax reforms and spending cuts that will set the United States on a better fiscal path.
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Further Reading
House Reconciliation Bill Would Increase the National Debt by More Than Any Other Recent Legislation
The House recently passed the largest reconciliation bill ever. CBO estimates it would add $2.4 trillion (excluding interest) to the national debt over 10 years.
No Tax on Social Security Would Weaken Both Social Security and Medicare
Republicans in Congress are considering several new tax cuts that would reduce federal revenues by trillions of dollars over the next decade.
Here’s How No Tax on Overtime Would Affect Federal Revenues and Tax Fairness
Excluding overtime pay from federal taxes would meaningfully worsen the fiscal outlook, while most of the tax benefits would go to the top 20% of taxpayers.