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Fiscal Outlook

Four Key Takeaways from the CBO Long-Term Outlook

Last Updated March 31, 2017

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Yesterday the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released the 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook, highlighting the significant fiscal challenges facing our nation.

Here are four key takeaways from our analysis of the CBO report:

1. Federal debt is already at its highest level since 1950 and is projected to climb to 150 percent of GDP under current law by 2047 — by far an all-time high.

The national debt is on an unsustainable path

2. Rising debt is a result of a structural imbalance between revenues and spending. Under current law, spending growth, which is fueled primarily by the aging of the population and growing healthcare costs, significantly outpaces the projected growth in revenues.

The growing debt is caused by a structural mismatch between spending and revenues

3. As the debt grows and interest rates rise, interest costs are projected to increase rapidly. By 2028, interest will become the third largest category of the budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare.

BY 2047 interest costs are projected to be more than two times what hte federal government has historically spent on RD, infrastructure, and education combined

4. Rising debt will harm our economy and slow the growth of productivity and wages. On our current path, the annual average income loss for a 4-person family would be $16,000 by 2047.

The growing federal debt would reduce family incomes substantially

The good news is that it’s not too late to adjust course, and the sooner we get started, the easier it will be to fix. To learn more about bipartisan policy options, visit our Solutions page.

 

Image credit: Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

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