IMF Releases Most Pessimistic Economic Projections for the United States to Date
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States will fall by 8 percent in 2020, according to the latest update to their World Economic Outlook report. The new projection is 2.1 percentage points below the previous projection that they released in April. The IMF is more pessimistic than other forecasters about the effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the U.S. economy.
The IMF is also pessimistic about the economies of a number of other countries. For example, they estimate that the economies of both Italy and France will decline by more than 12 percent this year. Meanwhile, the IMF projects that China will experience growth of 1.0 percent in real GDP in 2020, making it one of only two countries (along with Egypt) included in the report to receive a positive projection for the year.
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Further Reading
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What Is the Yield Curve, and What Does It Tell Us About the Economy?
Not only does the yield curve offer insights into the strength of the economy, but it also signals how investors view the government’s fiscal trajectory.
Can We Grow Our Way Out of the National Debt?
The gap between what economic growth can realistically deliver and what fiscal sustainability requires is too large to bridge without also addressing the structural imbalance between federal spending and revenues.