The Current Ratio of Workers to Social Security Beneficiaries Is at an All-Time Low and Projected to Decline Further
Social Security has been a cornerstone of economic security for over 90 years, but the program is on unsound footing. Social Security’s Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is projected to be depleted by 2032 — just six years from now. A major contributor to the unsustainability of the current Social Security program is that the number of workers paying into to the program is growing more slowly than the number of beneficiaries receiving monthly benefits. In 1955—two decades after Social Security started—there were 8.8 workers per OASI beneficiary; that ratio dropped to 3.0 in 2025.
The declining ratio of workers to beneficiaries creates financial difficulties for Social Security. Fifty years ago —1975— the Social Security program had revenues of $57 billion and outlays of $60 billion resulting in a $3 billion deficit. However, by 2025, the smaller ratio led to outlays ($1,449 billion) exceeding revenues ($1,187 billion) and a $262 billion deficit. As it stands now, the gap between outlays and income will continue to grow. By 2031, the last year before funds are expected to become depleted, the Social Security Trustees expect that costs will exceed income by $424 billion. When the trust funds are depleted, benefits will be limited by the income assigned to the program, and absent changes to law, benefits will be reduced by 22 percent.
Why Is the Ratio Declining?
There are a few reasons why the ratio of workers to beneficiaries has been declining — most notably changes in fertility, immigration, and aging of the population. Around the end of the baby boom in 1960, the average number of children born to a woman was 3.6; by 2024, that number had declined to 1.6. The decline in fertility rate means that the working generation is getting smaller relative to the generation receiving benefits. Immigration also plays a role in the population landscape because immigrants tend to be younger, have higher fertility rates, and participate in the workforce. However, the rate of immigration to the United States has been declining in recent years. Simultaneously, more Americans are getting older and living longer. In 1960, a male individual who reached age 65 was expected to live to 78 while a female individual was expected to live to 81; in 2025, they were expected to live to 83 and 86 respectively. Over the next 30 years, people age 65 and older will grow from 66.4 million to 85.8 million, thereby reducing the worker-to-beneficiary ratio.
How Can Social Security Be Sustained?
Researchers warn that the ongoing decline of the worker to beneficiary ratio signals financial instability for Social Security, lending the need for program reform.
The good news is that there are many available solutions to ensure Social Security’s solvency: changing the retirement age, revising the program’s benefit structure, or increasing revenues dedicated to the program; pursuing all in combination would likely provide the most lasting and least painful adjustment for the future. For example, the Social Security Administration (SSA) estimates that if the federal retirement age was raised to 69, it would decrease federal outlays by $1.4 trillion over 10 years. An example of a change in the benefit structure would be to grow initial benefits with changes in prices instead of wages, basing benefits on inflation-adjusted wages rather than real wages. That change would reduce outlays by $2.9 trillion over a 10-year period. Lawmakers could also adjust the cap on income subject to payroll taxes. For instance, the current maximum amount subject to the payroll tax is $184,500, but the SSA estimates that removing the payroll tax cap would raise more than $1.9 trillion in revenues over a 10-year period.
Social Security is the largest single line item in the federal budget and a key driver of the national debt; it is also an essential component of our economy and society. Regardless of what policies lawmakers choose, if reforms are not enacted soon, recipients could see a significant decrease in their benefits. Because millions of people depend on Social Security, lawmakers need to ensure that benefit payments are adequate for individual financial security, but also sustainable to ensure the program’s solvency.
Image credit: Don Mason / Getty Images
Further Reading
Social Security Reform: Lessons From the Greenspan Commission
As the conditions of the 1980s mirror that of today, a commission is a viable and helpful framework worthy of consideration.
Social Security Is in Trouble. What Does That Mean for Younger Americans?
Social Security’s looming insolvency is also a threat to the economic future of younger Americans.
Senators We Elect in 2026 Will Have to Deal with Automatic Social Security Cuts
Without congressional action within the next six years, millions of Social Security recipients will face an automatic benefit cut of approximately 22 percent.