The Scorekeepers Agree: Budget Bill will Increase U.S. Debt by Trillions
The House recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and fiscal scorekeepers are unanimous in their assessment that it would increase federal debt by trillions of dollars within 10 years. In fact, four independent policy organizations — the Budget Lab at Yale, the Congressional Budget Office, the Tax Foundation, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model — estimate that the bill would send the national debt soaring to more than $50 trillion.
The groups find that by 2034 the debt would reach:
· $52.3 trillion according to the Budget Lab at Yale
· $52.4 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office
· $52.8 trillion according to the Tax Foundation
· $56.3 trillion according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model
Rising debt not only worsens the federal government’s fiscal situation but also has real impacts on all Americans. A larger national debt will reduce the size of the U.S. economy, reduce the number of U.S. jobs, and decrease the wages of working Americans.
The expert consensus is clear that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add trillions to America’s debt, making our already unsustainable outlook even worse. As the legislation is considered in the Senate, lawmakers still have the opportunity to consider fiscally responsible tax reforms and spending cuts that will set the United States on a better fiscal path.
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Further Reading
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act Is the Most Expensive Reconciliation Package in Recent History
The legislative package will be the most expensive reconciliation bill in a quarter of a century and will add trillions of dollars to the U.S. debt.
Lifting the Debt Ceiling Has Been Paired with Budget Reform in the Past
Earlier this year, the United States once again hit its debt ceiling, which is currently capped at $36.1 trillion.
Even with Economic Growth Factored in, OBBBA Would Increase Deficits
The small, positive fiscal impact from slightly higher economic growth is projected to be more than offset by increased federal interest costs.