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Fiscal Outlook

Interest Costs on the National Debt Are Reaching All-Time Highs

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The most recent projections from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) confirm once again that America’s fiscal outlook is on an unsustainable path — increasingly driven by higher interest costs. Growing debt, in addition to the rise in interest rates over the past couple of years, has significantly increased the cost of federal borrowing. In 2025, interest costs on the national debt totaled $970 billion — surpassing most other components of the federal budget.

CBO projects that interest costs in 2026 will reach a new milestone and total $1.0 trillion — a 7 percent increase from the year before, but following increases of 10 and 34 percent in each of the two years before that. This year’s high interest bill is part of a trend that stretches out into the future, as debt continues to climb and relatively high interest rates push up the cost of federal borrowing. Over the next decade, the U.S. government’s interest payments on the national debt are now projected to total $16.2 trillion — the highest dollar amount for interest in any historical 10-year period and nearly double the total spent over the past two decades after adjusting for inflation. In fact, by pretty much any measurement, interest on the national debt will soon grow beyond its highest level since 1940, when such data were first collected:

  • Net interest costs under CBO’s projections (which generally assume that current laws remain the same) would rise from $1.0 trillion in 2026 to nearly $2.1 trillion in 2036.
  • Relative to the size of the economy, interest costs would reach 3.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 — eclipsing the previous high set in 1991. Interest costs would climb to 4.6 percent of GDP by 2036.
  • As a share of federal revenues, federal interest payments would rise to 18.6 percent this year, above the previous high set in 1991. Under CBO’s projections, that ratio would climb to 25.8 percent by 2036.
  • As a percent of total spending, interest costs would reach 15.7 percent by 2029, exceeding the previous high of 15.4 percent set in 1996.

Mounting interest costs put tremendous pressure on the federal budget, making it more difficult and costly to address pressing challenges and invest for the future. In fact, under CBO’s current Budget and Economic Outlook, net interest costs will exceed Medicare spending through the upcoming decade. Rising interest costs also contribute to a vicious cycle of higher debt and additional interest costs.

Another way to contextualize the growth in interest costs: this year, the Treasury will pay $2.8 billion per day, on average, for interest. And unless we change course, that will rise to $5.9 billion per day in 2036.

Any number in the trillions can be hard to grasp. Here are some ways to consider what $16.2 trillion in interest means for America.

$16.2 trillion is:

  • Approximately $47,000 per person.
  • Approximately three times what the government spent on net interest between 2006 and 2025.
  • Approximately three times Social Security’s cumulative cash deficits in the next 10 years.
  • Approximately five times the cost of the 403 U.S. weather and climate disasters where overall damages each reached or exceeded $1 billion since 1980 (adjusted for inflation).
  • More than 25 times the need of America’s 20-year, $625 billion drinking water infrastructure.

By any measure, interest costs as part of the federal budget are at an all-time high, and trending even higher in the years ahead.  Securing the nation’s fiscal and economic future will mean getting those interest costs under control, which will help relieve pressure within the budget, allow investments in priorities for the country’s future, respond to emergencies, and help ensure a vibrant and inclusive economy for the nation.

 

 

Image credit: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

Last Updated February 12, 2026

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