Four Key Takeaways from the CBO Long-Term Outlook
Last Updated March 31, 2017
Yesterday the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released the 2017 Long-Term Budget Outlook, highlighting the significant fiscal challenges facing our nation.
Here are four key takeaways from our analysis of the CBO report:
1. Federal debt is already at its highest level since 1950 and is projected to climb to 150 percent of GDP under current law by 2047 — by far an all-time high.
2. Rising debt is a result of a structural imbalance between revenues and spending. Under current law, spending growth, which is fueled primarily by the aging of the population and growing healthcare costs, significantly outpaces the projected growth in revenues.
3. As the debt grows and interest rates rise, interest costs are projected to increase rapidly. By 2028, interest will become the third largest category of the budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare.
4. Rising debt will harm our economy and slow the growth of productivity and wages. On our current path, the annual average income loss for a 4-person family would be $16,000 by 2047.
The good news is that it’s not too late to adjust course, and the sooner we get started, the easier it will be to fix. To learn more about bipartisan policy options, visit our Solutions page.
Image credit: Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Further Reading
The National Debt Can Crowd Out Investments in the Economy — Here’s How
Large amounts of federal debt could “crowd out” investments by the private sector, making the economy less productive and stunting wage growth.
Growing National Debt Sets Off Alarm Bells for U.S. Business Leaders
Debt rising unsustainably threatens the country’s economic future, and a number of business leaders have signaled their concern.
What Is R Versus G and Why Does It Matter for the National Debt?
The combination of higher debt levels and elevated interest rates have increased the cost of federal borrowing, prompting economists to consider the sustainability of our fiscal trajectory.