House Reconciliation Bill Would Increase the National Debt by More Than Any Other Recent Legislation
Last Updated June 4, 2025
The House recently passed the largest reconciliation bill ever, and it is now under consideration in the Senate. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would add $2.4 trillion (excluding interest) to the national debt over 10 years. That total would far exceed the cost of several other significant pieces of legislation enacted over the past several years, including the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, 2020 Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, 2021 American Rescue Plan, and 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
The rapidly growing national debt threatens America’s economic prosperity. A recent analysis from EY’s Quantitative Economics and Statistics practice shows the significant negative effect that rising debt will have on key economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, jobs, investment, and wages. Increasing national debt also puts upward pressure on inflation and interest rates, weakening the economy and increasing the chance of a fiscal crisis.
Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, noted that “budget reconciliation should be a tool for improving our fiscal health, but this bill takes America in the opposite direction. Lawmakers still have an opportunity to improve it by finding credible offsets and eliminating gimmicks.” As Congress continues to work on the reconciliation bill, lawmakers should prioritize fiscal responsibility by incorporating reforms that offset costs so that the legislation, at the very least, does not worsen the fiscal path of the United States.
Photo by Evan Semones - cosmophotography/Getty Images
Further Reading
Even with Economic Growth Factored in, OBBBA Would Increase Deficits
The small, positive fiscal impact from slightly higher economic growth is projected to be more than offset by increased federal interest costs.
House Reconciliation Bill Would Add Trillions to the National Debt
The bill would increase debt by $3.0 trillion over the next 10 years, driving it from nearly 100 percent of GDP now to 124 percent of GDP by 2034.
The Scorekeepers Agree: Budget Bill will Increase U.S. Debt by Trillions
The House recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and scorekeepers are unanimous in their assessment that it would increase federal debt.