The Scorekeepers Agree: Budget Bill will Increase U.S. Debt by Trillions
The House recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and fiscal scorekeepers are unanimous in their assessment that it would increase federal debt by trillions of dollars within 10 years. In fact, four independent policy organizations — the Budget Lab at Yale, the Congressional Budget Office, the Tax Foundation, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model — estimate that the bill would send the national debt soaring to more than $50 trillion.
The groups find that by 2034 the debt would reach:
· $52.3 trillion according to the Budget Lab at Yale
· $52.4 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office
· $52.8 trillion according to the Tax Foundation
· $56.3 trillion according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model
Rising debt not only worsens the federal government’s fiscal situation but also has real impacts on all Americans. A larger national debt will reduce the size of the U.S. economy, reduce the number of U.S. jobs, and decrease the wages of working Americans.
The expert consensus is clear that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add trillions to America’s debt, making our already unsustainable outlook even worse. As the legislation is considered in the Senate, lawmakers still have the opportunity to consider fiscally responsible tax reforms and spending cuts that will set the United States on a better fiscal path.
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Further Reading
The President’s Budget Doesn’t Address National Debt, and Calls for Highest Defense Spending in History
For the second year in a row, the Trump Administration has submitted a budget that excludes key fiscal variables such as debt and deficit projections.
Tax Reform Alone May Not Be Enough to Stabilize the National Debt
A new report from the Tax Foundation breaks down the drivers of the fiscal imbalance and concludes that tax increases alone cannot solve the problem.
A Gas Tax Holiday Costs Billions, But Consumers See Only Marginal Savings
If the full savings from the gas tax holiday were passed on to consumers, the average licensed driver would only save approximately $8.90 per month.