The Scorekeepers Agree: Budget Bill will Increase U.S. Debt by Trillions
The House recently passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and fiscal scorekeepers are unanimous in their assessment that it would increase federal debt by trillions of dollars within 10 years. In fact, four independent policy organizations — the Budget Lab at Yale, the Congressional Budget Office, the Tax Foundation, and the Penn Wharton Budget Model — estimate that the bill would send the national debt soaring to more than $50 trillion.
The groups find that by 2034 the debt would reach:
· $52.3 trillion according to the Budget Lab at Yale
· $52.4 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office
· $52.8 trillion according to the Tax Foundation
· $56.3 trillion according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model
Rising debt not only worsens the federal government’s fiscal situation but also has real impacts on all Americans. A larger national debt will reduce the size of the U.S. economy, reduce the number of U.S. jobs, and decrease the wages of working Americans.
The expert consensus is clear that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will add trillions to America’s debt, making our already unsustainable outlook even worse. As the legislation is considered in the Senate, lawmakers still have the opportunity to consider fiscally responsible tax reforms and spending cuts that will set the United States on a better fiscal path.
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Further Reading
Growing Momentum for a Fiscal Commission in Congress
A fiscal commission would provide the space and structure for lawmakers to comprehensively review the entire budget and improve the fiscal path of the U.S.
86 Ways to Reform the Tax Code — and Why It’s Only Half the Solution
Tax policy is about trade-offs between how much revenue a tax will raise, who will bear the burden, and how a change will impact economic incentives.
In Their Own Words: Debt a Critical Issue for Voters in 2026 Election
Voters understand that the national debt has become too big to ignore as a major factor in America’s affordability crisis.