NEW YORK (September 9, 2009)--A mixed picture emerges from a new study commissioned by the Peter G.Peterson Foundation on America's Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009 (H.R. 3200). The study, conducted by The Lewin Group, provides a critical look at longer-term cost implications of a major comprehensive health care reform proposal, estimating the impacts through the year 2029, making it the first analysis of health care reform costs beyond 2019. The study examines the House legislation as amended by the Energy and Commerce Committee. The Foundation plans to commission similar analyses of other major reform proposals, including the one from the Senate Finance committee, as legislation is introduced.
Spending,Changes | 2010-2019 | 2020-2029 | 2010-2029 |
---|---|---|---|
Medicaid Eligibility Expansion |
375 | 1,086 | 1,461 |
Premium Subsidies Employer pay or play payroll taxes |
667 -291 |
2,228 -693 |
2,895 -984 |
Public Plan Start-up Retiree Reinsurance Program |
2 10 |
0 0 |
2 10 |
Medicare and Medicaid Payment Reforms |
-231 | -735 | -966 |
Changes in Other Federal Programs |
-3 | -8 | -12 |
Total changes to spending |
530 | 1,877 | 2,407 |
Revenue Changes |
2010-2019 | 2020-2029 | 2010-2029 |
Taxes on High Income |
588 | 1,148 | 1,735 |
Employer Tax Credit Penalties for Uninsured |
-64 67 |
-165 135 |
-228 2020 |
Taxes on Changes in Wages |
-100 | -250 | -350 |
Total Changes to revenue |
491 | 868 | 1,359 |
Total impact on federal deficit |
39 | 1,010 | 1,048 |
"This nation needs to engage in comprehensive health care reform that will include some level of universal coverage. At the same time, this study shows that the top priority needs to be reducing total health care costs and the rate of increase in future costs. For health care reform to be fiscally sustainable, it must not just pay for itself over 10 years and beyond, it should also result in a significant reduction in the tens of trillions of dollars in the federal government's unfunded health care promises," said David M. Walker, President and CEO of the Foundation.
The study indicates that America's Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009, as amended by the Energy and Commerce Committee, would expand health insurance coverage, but it would also increase the nation's total health spending. Although the Act would nearly pay for the expanded coverage in the first 10 years as new provisions are put into place, over time, the sources of financing do not keep pace with the expected growth in new costs.
Key findings include:
Read the full PGPF Summary [1].