Voters' Negative Outlook On Federal Debt Continues

Apr 28, 2014

Contact: Sarah Stipicevic, Press Secretary
(212) 542-9265 sstipicevic@pgpf.org

The April 2014 Fiscal Confidence Index, Modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index, is 43 (100 is Neutral)

84 Percent of Voters Agree that Addressing the National Debt Should be Among the President and Congress’ Top Three Priorities

Nearly Two-Thirds (65 Percent, Up From 59 Percent in March) of Americans Believe the Country is on the Wrong Track on the issue

NEW YORK — The Peter G. Peterson Foundation today released the April 2014 Fiscal Confidence Index, a monthly measure of public attitudes about the nation's long-term debt and the efforts elected leaders are making to address America’s fiscal challenges. The April survey finds that Americans continue to have overwhelmingly negative views about the debt.

The April 2014 Fiscal Confidence Index, modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index, is 43 (100 is neutral), indicating that voters continue to hold deep concerns about America's fiscal situation.

Voters demonstrate a clear desire for their leaders in Washington to focus on the issue, as they broadly agree (84% agree/13% disagree) that the national debt should be among the President and Congress’ top 3 priorities; six in ten (62%) agree strongly. Americans also widely share concerns about the direction of the problem: nearly two-thirds (65%) of Americans now say that the country is on the wrong track on addressing the issue, a six-point increase since last month (59%).

"Despite recent improvements to near-term deficits, America's major long-term fiscal challenges remain,” said Michael A. Peterson, President and COO of the Peterson Foundation. "Voters are urging action to address our debt because they understand that a solid fiscal foundation is an essential part of a strong economy. Getting our fiscal house in order would give the economy an immediate boost of confidence, while also leading to more growth, opportunity and prosperity longer term."

The Fiscal Confidence Index measures public opinion about the national debt by asking six questions in three key areas:

  • CONCERN: Level of concern and views about the direction of the national debt.
  • PRIORITY: How high a priority addressing the debt should be for elected leaders.
  • EXPECTATIONS: Expectations about whether the debt situation will get better or worse in the next few years.

The survey results from these three areas are weighted equally and averaged to produce the Fiscal Confidence Index value. The Fiscal Confidence Index, like the Consumer Confidence Index, is indexed on a scale of 0 to 200, with a neutral midpoint of 100. A reading above 100 indicates positive sentiment. A reading below 100 indicates negative sentiment.

Fiscal Confidence Index Key Data Points:

  • The April 2014 Fiscal Confidence Index value is 43. A score of 100 is neutral. Values below 100 show negative sentiment, while values above 100 show positive sentiment. (March’s value was 47. February’s value was 46.)
  • The current Fiscal Confidence Index score for CONCERN about the debt is 38, indicating deep concern about the debt. The score for debt as a PRIORITY that leaders must address is 20, indicating that Americans want elected leaders to make addressing long-term debt a high priority. The score for EXPECTATIONS about progress on the debt is 69, indicating strong pessimism about the direction of long-term fiscal policy in the next few years. The Fiscal Confidence Index of 43 is the average of these three sub-category scores.
  • For a description of the complete methodology, see the Appendix below.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation commissioned a poll by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research to survey public opinion on the national debt. The nationwide poll included 1,004 U.S. registered voters, surveyed by telephone between April 21 and April 24, 2014. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The poll examined voters’ opinions on the national debt, political leadership, and America’s fiscal and economic health.

Detailed poll results can be found online at: www.pgpf.org/what-we-are-doing/education-and-awareness/fiscal-confidence-index

About the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
The Peter G. Peterson Foundation is a non-profit, non-partisan organization established by Pete Peterson — businessman, philanthropist, and former U.S. Secretary of Commerce. The Foundation is dedicated to increasing public awareness of the nature and urgency of key long-term fiscal challenges threatening America's future and to accelerating action on them. To address these challenges successfully, we work to bring Americans together to find and implement sensible, long-term solutions that transcend age, party lines and ideological divides in order to achieve real results. To learn more, please visit www.pgpf.org.

 

APPENDIX: Fiscal Confidence Index Methodology and Questions

  • The Fiscal Confidence Index is released monthly by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
  • The Fiscal Confidence Index value is based on six questions in three categories.
  • As is done with the Consumer Confidence Index, the first step in calculating the Fiscal Confidence Index is determining the "Relative Value" for each question. This calculation is made by taking the positive response for each question and dividing it by the sum of the positive and negative responses. Each question was asked on a four-point scale, and answers were weighted according to intensity, with the strongest responses counting twice as much as the middle responses ("much" better or worse answers count twice as heavily as "somewhat" better or worse answers).
  • The scores for the Concern, Priority, and Expectations categories are determined by averaging the scores derived from the two questions in each category.
  • The Fiscal Confidence Index value is converted from the Relative Value to place it on a scale on which 100 indicates equal positive and negative sentiment, while values below 100 indicate negative sentiment and values above 100 indicate positive sentiment.
  • The Peter G. Peterson Foundation commissioned the poll by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research to survey public opinion on the national debt. The nationwide poll included 1,004 U.S. registered voters, surveyed by telephone between April 21 and April 24, 2014. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The poll examined voters' opinions on the national debt, political leadership, and America’s fiscal and economic health.
  • The questions are as follows:

CONCERN (38)
Thinking about our national debt over the last few years, would you say your level of concern has increased or decreased?
◊ Is that a lot or just a little?
  Apr 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014
Increased a lot 52% 48% 53%
Increased a little 19% 19% 19%
Decreased a little 10% 9% 9%
Decreased a lot 5% 6% 5%
(No change) 13% 16% 12%
(Don't Know/Refused) 1% 2% 1%
INCREASED (NET) 71% 67% 72%
DECREASED (NET) 15% 15% 15%
 
When it comes to addressing our national debt, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction or do you think things are off on the wrong track?
◊ Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?
  Apr 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014
Right direction-Strongly 9% 10% 11%
Right direction-Somewhat 16% 19% 18%
Wrong track-Somewhat 19% 16% 15%
Wrong track-Strongly 46% 43% 48%
(Neither/Mixed) 6% 6% 5%
(Don't Know/Refused) 4% 5% 3%
RIGHT DIRECTION (NET) 26% 29% 29%
WRONG TRACK (NET) 65% 59% 63%

PRIORITY (20)
Some people say that addressing the national debt should be among the President and Congress' top 3 priorities. Do you agree or disagree?
◊ Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?
  Apr 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014
Strongly agree 62% 55% 60%
Somewhat agree 22% 24% 21%
Somewhat disagree 8% 10% 8%
Strongly disagree 6% 7% 8%
(Don't Know/Refused) 3% 4% 4%
AGREE (NET) 84% 79% 80%
DISAGREE (NET) 13% 17% 16%
       
 
And when it comes to our national debt, do you think it is an issue that the President and Congress should spend more time addressing or less time addressing?
◊ Would you say a lot (more or less) time or just a little?
  Apr 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014
A lot more time 63% 58% 61%
A little more time 20% 22% 20%
A little less time 6% 6% 6%
A lot less time 4% 5% 6%
(The same amount of time) 5% 4% 3%
(Don't Know/Refused) 2% 4% 3%
MORE TIME (NET) 83% 80% 82%
LESS TIME (NET) 10% 11% 12%

EXPECTATIONS (69)
And thinking about our national debt over the next few years, do you expect the problem to get better or worse?
◊ Is that much (better or worse) or just somewhat (better or worse)?
  Apr 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014
Much better 8% 10% 10%
Somewhat better 17% 19% 21%
Somewhat worse 27% 23% 22%
Much worse 38% 38% 39%
(No change) 5% 6% 4%
(Don't know/Refused) 4% 5% 5%
BETTER (NET) 26% 28% 31%
WORSE (NET) 65% 61% 61%
 
And when it comes to our national debt, are you optimistic or pessimistic that the United States will be able to make progress on our national debt over the next few years?
◊ Would you say you are very (optimistic or pessimistic) or just somewhat?
  Apr 2014 Mar 2014 Feb 2014
Very optimistic 17% 16% 18%
Somewhat optimistic 29% 31% 28%
Somewhat pessimistic 19% 15% 17%
Very pessimistic 30% 30% 31%
(Neither/Mixed) 3% 4% 3%
(Don't Know/Refused) 2% 4% 3%
OPTIMISTIC (NET) 46% 47% 46%
PESSIMISTIC (NET) 49% 45% 48%

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