As Tax Reform Gets Underway, Americans Want Leaders to Prioritize Nation’s Fiscal Health

Oct 31, 2017

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press@pgpf.org

The October 2017 Fiscal Confidence Index, Modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index, is 51 (100 is Neutral)

NEW YORK (October 31, 2017) — As policymakers prepare to release legislative details about tax reform, American voters remain concerned about the nation’s fiscal health, according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation’s October Fiscal Confidence Index, a monthly measure of public attitudes about the national debt and the efforts elected leaders are making to address America’s fiscal challenges.

The Fiscal Confidence Index, modeled after the Consumer Confidence Index, is 51 (100 is neutral), indicating that voters expect policymakers to prioritize our nation’s fiscal condition as they look to make significant changes to the tax code.

The majority of Americans believe the U.S. is on the wrong track when it comes to addressing the national debt (30% right direction/55% wrong track), with roughly two-thirds of voters (67%) saying their level of concern about the debt has increased over the last few years. This rising concern crosses party lines, with Republicans (74%), Democrats (66%), and independents (63%) all saying their concern over the debt has increased. Looking forward, Americans are split on whether the country will be able to make progress on this issue (48% optimistic/44% pessimistic).

“As lawmakers begin to write tax legislation, it’s clear that Americans are calling on them to be fiscally responsible,” said Michael A. Peterson, President and CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. “Voters understand that to build a vibrant economic future, our nation must get its fiscal house in order. Tax reform should grow the economy, not the debt.”

The Fiscal Confidence Index measures public opinion about the national debt by asking six questions in three key areas:

  • CONCERN: Level of concern and views about the direction of the national debt.
  • PRIORITY: How high a priority addressing the debt should be for elected leaders.
  • EXPECTATIONS: Expectations about whether the debt situation will get better or worse in the next few years.

The survey results from these three areas are weighted equally and averaged to produce the Fiscal Confidence Index value. The Fiscal Confidence Index, like the Consumer Confidence Index, is indexed on a scale of 0 to 200, with a neutral midpoint of 100. A reading above 100 indicates positive sentiment. A reading below 100 indicates negative sentiment.

Fiscal Confidence Index Key Data Points:

  • The October 2017 Fiscal Confidence Index value is 51. (The October value was 51 and the August value was 56.)
  • The current Fiscal Confidence Index score for CONCERN about the debt is 45, indicating deep concern about the debt. The score for debt as a PRIORITY that leaders must address is 27, indicating that Americans want elected leaders to make addressing long-term debt a high priority. The score for EXPECTATIONS about progress on the debt is 82. The Fiscal Confidence Index is the average of these three sub-category scores.
  • For a description of the complete methodology, see the Appendix below.

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation commissioned a poll by the Global Strategy Group and North Star Opinion Research to survey public opinion on the national debt. The nationwide poll included 1,002 U.S. registered voters, surveyed by telephone between September 18 and September 21, 2017. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. The poll examined voters’ opinions on the national debt, political leadership, and America’s fiscal and economic health.

Detailed poll results can be found online at: www.pgpf.org/FiscalConfidenceIndex.

About the Peter G. Peterson Foundation

The Peter G. Peterson Foundation is a non-profit, non-partisan organization that is dedicated to increasing public awareness of the nature and urgency of key fiscal challenges threatening America's future, and to accelerating action on them. To address these challenges successfully, we work to bring Americans together to find and implement sensible, long-term solutions that transcend age, party lines and ideological divides in order to achieve real results. To learn more, please visit www.pgpf.org.

APPENDIX: Fiscal Confidence Index Methodology and Questions

  • The Fiscal Confidence Index is released monthly by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.
  • The Fiscal Confidence Index value is based on six questions in three categories.
  • As is done with the Consumer Confidence Index, the first step in calculating the Fiscal Confidence Index is determining the “Relative Value” for each question. This calculation is made by taking the positive response for each question and dividing it by the sum of the positive and negative responses. Each question was asked on a four-point scale, and answers were weighted according to intensity, with the strongest responses counting twice as much as the middle responses (“much” better or worse answers count twice as heavily as “somewhat” better or worse answers).
  • The scores for the Concern, Priority, and Expectations categories are determined by averaging the scores derived from the two questions in each category.
  • The Fiscal Confidence Index value is converted from the Relative Value to place it on a scale on which 100 indicates equal positive and negative sentiment, while values below 100 indicate negative sentiment and values above 100 indicate positive sentiment.
  • The questions are as follows:

 

CONCERN (45)
Thinking about our national debt over the last few years, would you say your level of concern has increased or decreased?
◊ Is that a lot or just a little?
October 2017 September 2017 August 2017
Increased a lot 40% 40% 39%
Increased a little 27% 22% 21%
Decreased a little 8% 9% 12%
Decreased a lot 4% 5% 5%
(No change) 19% 22% 20%
(Don't Know/Refused) 2% 2% 2%
INCREASED (NET) 67% 62% 61%
DECREASED (NET) 12% 14% 17%
 
When it comes to addressing our national debt, would you say things in the United States are heading in the right direction or do you think things are off on the wrong track?
◊ Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?
October 2017 September 2017 August 2017
Right direction-Strongly 14% 10% 13%
Right direction-Somewhat 16% 17% 19%
Wrong track-Somewhat 19% 18% 17%
Wrong track-Strongly 36% 36% 38%
(Neither/Mixed) 8% 11% 8%
(Don't Know/Refused) 8% 7% 4%
RIGHT DIRECTION (NET) 30% 27% 32%
WRONG TRACK (NET) 55% 54% 56%
PRIORITY (27)
Some people say that addressing the national debt should be among the president and Congress' top 3 priorities. Do you agree or disagree?
◊ Do you feel that way strongly or just somewhat?
October 2017 September 2017 August 2017
Strongly agree 50% 48% 49%
Somewhat agree 23% 22% 24%
Somewhat disagree 13% 11% 12%
Strongly disagree 7% 13% 12%
(Don't Know/Refused) 7% 6% 4%
AGREE (NET) 73% 70% 72%
DISAGREE (NET) 20% 24% 23%
 
And when it comes to our national debt, do you think it is an issue that the president and Congress should spend more time addressing or less time addressing?
◊ Would you say a lot (more or less) time or just a little?
October 2017 September 2017 August 2017
A lot more time 52% 48% 52%
A little more time 25% 25% 25%
A little less time 6% 7% 8%
A lot less time 3% 6% 4%
(The same amount of time) 7% 7% 6%
(Don't Know/Refused) 5% 6% 5%
MORE TIME (NET) 78% 73% 76%
LESS TIME (NET) 10% 13% 13%
EXPECTATIONS (82)
And thinking about our national debt over the next few years, do you expect the problem to get better or worse?
◊ Is that much (better or worse) or just somewhat (better or worse)?
October 2017 September 2017 August 2017
Much better 13% 8% 12%
Somewhat better 18% 16% 19%
Somewhat worse 24% 29% 26%
Much worse 35% 35% 33%
(No change) 5% 7% 5%
(Don't know/Refused) 6% 6% 5%
BETTER (NET) 31% 23% 31%
WORSE (NET) 58% 64% 59%
 
And when it comes to our national debt, are you optimistic or pessimistic that the United States will be able to make progress on our national debt over the next few years?
◊ Would you say you are very (optimistic or pessimistic) or just somewhat?
October 2017 September 2017 August 2017
Very optimistic 20% 17% 22%
Somewhat optimistic 28% 28% 27%
Somewhat pessimistic 19% 17% 19%
Very pessimistic 25% 27% 24%
(Neither/Mixed) 4% 6% 4%
(Don't Know/Refused) 5% 5% 3%
OPTIMISTIC (NET) 48% 45% 50%
PESSIMISTIC (NET) 44% 45% 43%

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